Second-order effects

The first effect of a decision is the one you intended. The second is how everyone and everything around it reacts. A discount brings in customers; it also teaches them to wait for the next discount.

How to use it

For each option, write down the immediate result, then ask "and then what?" at least twice. Pay attention to who changes their behaviour because of your decision, and over what time scale.

Where it misleads

Chains of consequences get speculative quickly. Two steps are usually enough; beyond that you are mostly writing fiction.